S&P ended the first trading day of 2015 pretty much flat, while the 10 year decreased to 2.12% and crude ended around $52.60. I take all this as a mild positive considering stocks took a dive after ISM reported its survey on manufacturing this morning. The release missed expectations by the largest margin since January 2014 and also decreased MoM. Within the report there were also big decreases in new orders and prices paid. While perusing twitter I noticed how bearish everyone seemed to be thanks to this big miss and couldn't help but be reminded of the exact same thing happening last year...first big release of 2015 misses and now the world is doomed. I will also note though, that many market participants may have looked past this report evidenced in the market rallying a small amount through the afternoon. In my opinion, the jobs report next Friday is going to be a bigger deal and will set the tone for the first few weeks of trading in 2015.
In terms of other random thoughts for the day...everyone seems to think rate hikes are coming this year, which could impact multiples and send stocks diving, but I can't help but think that the Fed has tried extremely hard to prepare the market for these rate increases that we could continue to see stocks rally barring adverse slowdowns in other developed economies. After all, the markets don't react to expected news. Rate increases will obviously strengthen the dollar and while that may be bad for emerging economies, I think it will very much help places like the Euro Zone and Japan as they rely heavily on exports.
One of my goals is to get my thoughts down in writing more in 2015, so hopefully you all will be able to read more about what I am thinking in the coming days and weeks!
In terms of other random thoughts for the day...everyone seems to think rate hikes are coming this year, which could impact multiples and send stocks diving, but I can't help but think that the Fed has tried extremely hard to prepare the market for these rate increases that we could continue to see stocks rally barring adverse slowdowns in other developed economies. After all, the markets don't react to expected news. Rate increases will obviously strengthen the dollar and while that may be bad for emerging economies, I think it will very much help places like the Euro Zone and Japan as they rely heavily on exports.
One of my goals is to get my thoughts down in writing more in 2015, so hopefully you all will be able to read more about what I am thinking in the coming days and weeks!