Just read a pretty important article in the Washington Post. Titled "Fed Hawk Down: Head of Philadelphia Fed to retire in 2015," the newspaper discusses how Charles Plosser has decided to step down from his duties as a Fed President in March of 2015 aka before when many thought the Fed would start to raise rates. This is important because President Plosser is one of the most outspoken hawks in the FOMC. Does this mean rates will stay lower for even longer? Or will he be replaced by another hawk? Will be interesting to see how this all plays out over the coming year...
I'm not going to do this every single day, but I thought it might makes sense to jot down some thoughts when I see fit. I apologize in advance if there is a lack of structure to my daily reviews...
So today the NASDAQ got crushed (in relative terms), down some 1.1% while the S&P 500 was down about 7 basis points and the Dow was up some 26 basis points. Coincidence that most "zero-coupon stocks," as I like to call them, were crushed the same week the Fed has a very high profile meeting? I think not. Fed interest rate policy is all anyone seems to care about these days, ex the upcoming Alibaba (BABA) IPO, for good reason. We seem be slowly transitioning from a historically unique time where ZIRP ruled the day. Many economists expect the first interest rate hike in the US to come sometime next summer. I think we might see rates being raised after that given the absolutely anemic inflationary environment out there. Barring an international crisis either in Europe or the Middle East, I think US data continues to improve, albeit slowly. Sure things can be lumpy from month to month, but the trends of most all domestic data continue to move in the direction of economic expansion. Again, I think this is why most "zero-coupon stocks" got hammered today. My "zero-coupon stock" index was down 3.96% today vs. a roughly flat market. Obviously these names have been skyrocketing during ZIRP because the discount rates used to value these stocks were close to zero. Basic finance tells us that when the discount rate is increased the present value of the asset being valued decreases. This isn't the first time we've seen this in 2014, so I think the stocks rebound after the Fed press conference on Wednesday, but caveat emptor when it comes to some of the more high-profile stocks in the tech and consumer discretionary sectors. The party could be coming to an end in the coming 6-9 months. I will also say that I think the Fed will only raise rates if they think the economic expansion isn't fragile enough to be impacted by rate increases, which some may argue that any sell-off will be short-lived and the show must go on. While true, I think that valuations will be reeled in as valuations are historically inversely correlated to interest rates. We'll see what Chairwoman Yellen has to say later this week and then we'll get to see how investors in the zeros respond! It might start to become one of those times where you do work/swim out (research, research, research and make stock wish-list for when assets go on sale during a bigger sell-off), wait patiently for a monster swell (market sell-off), and then ride the wave back up! C'mon, you gotta love the corny surfing metaphor, I always relate my investment thoughts to things that I love! Hey all! So this is my first go on a basic website where I can talk about the stock market, companies, economics, book reviews and whatever else I find interesting out there that may be relevant to anyone interested in the world of finance! All thoughts and comments are MY OWN. Feedback is always appreciated...always want to know where one disagrees with me!
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